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11/21/2008 - Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Montreal Alouettes will definitely have home-field advantage for the Grey Cup.
The Alouettes will have the support of 60,000-plus rabid supporters on Sunday when they take on the Calgary Stampeders at Olympic Stadium.
Grey Cup organizers are hopeful that this year's game will attract more spectators than the 68,000-plus that turned out to watch Montreal defeat Edmonton 41-6 in the '77 CFL championship game. That year, the Grey Cup was played outdoors on a frozen turf that, appropriately enough, better resembled an ice hockey rink than football field.
Defensive back Tony Proudfoot's idea to put staples through the bottom of his shoes for better traction proved to a novel one as the Alouettes were much better able to get their footing on the slippery playing surface than the Eskimos.
Weather won't be a factor this time around, though, as Olympic Stadium is now a domed facility. But that will create a definite advantage for Montreal.
The partisan Alouettes gathering will definitely be a noisy one, living on the home team's every move. However, Montreal fans are definitely educated fans, having learned the value of being quiet when the home team has the ball, then perking up once the defense takes the field.
Home field was very important this season to Montreal, who finished in a four- way tie for the CFL's top home record at 7-2. However, the Alouettes were just 3-5 against West Division teams and 0-2 versus the Stampeders.
Montreal also has history working against it. The last CFL team to win the Grey Cup at home was the 1994 B.C. Lions. But a year after Montreal posted a dismal 8-10 record and bowed out of the first round of the CFL playoffs, it finds itself playing in is sixth Grey Cup game in nine years, thanks to an innovative rookie head coach.
The Alouettes decision this off-season to hire Marc Trestman was certainly met with some skepticism. After all, Trestman had spent time coaching with eight NFL teams over 17 years, including four terms as an offensive coordinator, and came to Montreal with no previous coaching experience in Canada.
But Trestman installed a quick-passing offense that has very much suited Anthony Calvillo. The 15-year CFL veteran threw a CFL-high 43 touchdown passes and was second overall in passing with 5,633 yards to capture the league's outstanding player for a second time.
And Trestman's offense certainly has the ability to give its home fans plenty to cheer about. The Alouettes were tops in the CFL in scoring, (32.4 points per game), yards per game (429) and passing percentage (69.5 percent).
Montreal also featured three 1,000-yard receivers in Jamel Richardson (98 catches, 1,287 yards, league-high 16 TDs), Ben Cahoon (league-best 107 catches, 1,231 yards, seven TDs) and Kerry Watkins (84 catches, 1,178 yards, 10 TDs).
Running back Avon Cobourne gives Montreal a double threat. Midway through the season he was threatening to become the first player in CFL history to accumulate 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season.
Injuries ended Cobourne's historic run, but he's back and healthy now, having rushed for 950 yards and caught 66 passes for 616 yards.
Montreal also fields a tough defense that was second in sacks (43) and third in fewest points allowed (23.5 points per game). Linebacker T.J Hill finished fifth overall in tackles with a team-high 84 while cornerback Davis Sanchez, a former San Diego Charger, led the squad in interceptions with three.
Special teams are in good hands. Damon Duval was second in the CFL in scoring (206 points, good on 44 of 53 field goals) and third in punting with a 46.2- yard average.
Larry Taylor was a one-man show in Montreal's 36-26 East Division win over Edmonton, returning two punts for touchdowns.
<< Let's make a deal: Knicks trade away Crawford, Randolph
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Knicks made a couple of big
trades on Friday, including a trade of guard Jamal Crawford to the Golden
State Warriors for forward Al Harrington.
Later on Friday, the Knicks announced t
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Carson, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When the dust settles on the Major League Soccer
title game at The Home Depot Center on Sunday, one of the two combatants - the
New York Red Bulls or the heavily favored Columbus Crew - will be hoisting
their r
<< Stars' Morrow to miss six months
Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dallas Stars captain Brenden Morrow is
expected to miss up to six months after tearing the anterior cruciate ligament
in his right knee, the club announced on Friday.
The 29-year-old Morrow skated in
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Florham Park, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Jets rookie quarterback Eric
Ainge has been suspended by the NFL for four game on Thursday for violating
the league's policy on steroids and related substances.
Placed on injured reserve
Around the CFL: Burris feels Stamps must win Grey Cup to get respect >>
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Henry Burris wasn't a happy camper at the
CFL's awards banquet Thursday night.
After both he and Calgary Stampeders kicker Sandro DeAngelis were snubbed for
individual awards, a rather testy Burris greeted rep
Aboya leads UCLA past Southern Illinois >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alfred Aboya finished with 22 points and
eight rebounds, as fourth-ranked UCLA rebounded to top Southern Illinois,
77-60, and win third place at the 2K Sports Classic Benefiting Coaches vs.
Cancer.
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East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Giants wide receiver Plaxico
Burress is suffering from a right hamstring injury and is considered a game-
time decision to play Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals.
Burress, who was hurt
Giants' Burress game-time decision >>
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Giants wide receiver Plaxico
Burress is suffering from a right hamstring injury and is considered a game-
time decision to play Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals.
Burress, who was hurt
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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