No.2 Tigers tangle with Red Raiders

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/28/2012 - Columbia, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The second-ranked Missouri Tigers set their sights on getting back on track, as they welcome the Texas Tech Red Raiders to Columbia this afternoon, for a Big 12 matchup at Mizzou Arena.

Frank Haith's Tigers are coming off just their second loss of the season, as Missouri suffered a 79-72 decision at Oklahoma State this week. The loss ended a four-game win streak for Missouri and dropped it to 5-2 in league play.

Billy Gillespie's first season in Lubbock has been a struggle, as the Red Raiders are five games under .500 at 7-12 overall. A decent season heading into conference play has gone horribly wrong, as Texas Tech is winless in the Big 12 and brings an ugly seven-game slide into this contest. The team was last in action on Wednesday, a 69-47 blowout loss at the hands of Kansas State.

Missouri holds a 13-8 series advantage against Texas Tech thanks to wins in each of the last five meetings.

A lack of offense has certainly plagued the Red Raiders this season, as the team is averaging a mere 62.5 ppg. Those numbers have dipped even lower in league play, where Texas Tech is managing an anemic 53.3 ppg. There is no scoring depth to speak of on the roster. Jordan Tolbert is shooting a strong .566 from the floor, but it has resulted in a rather modest 12.8 ppg. Javarez Willis (8.5 ppg) and Ty Nurse (8.2 ppg) are next in the line in the scoring column. In the recent 22-point loss to Kansas State, the Red Raiders produced just 47 points, doing so on .375 shooting, including .231 from three-point range (3-of-13). The Red Raiders were also outrebounded 35-25 and turned the ball over a whopping 25 times, resulting in 27 points for the Wildcats.

The Tigers went scoreless for more than five minutes in the second half, turning en eight point lead into a loss in Stillwater. The loss spoiled another strong outing by forward Ricardo Ratliffe, who recorded his third double-double of the season with 25 points and 12 rebounds. Marcus Denmon poured in 17 points in the setback, but the usually strong shooting Tigers managed just 40 percent from the floor in the game, weighed down by an ugly 4- of-19 showing from behind the arc. It was a bit of an anomaly for Missouri when taking the season stats into consideration, as the Tigers are still shooting just over 50 percent from the floor (.503) and putting up 82.8 ppg. Scoring depth has rarely been a problem, as Missouri boasts of five players in double figures, led by Denmon's 17.7 ppg. Denmon is joined in the backcourt by Kim English (14.1 ppg) and the pair are lethal from long range, combining for 100 of the team's 158 three-pointers to date. Ratliffe (15.1 ppg, 7.1 rpg) has been a force down low and leads the Big 12 in field-goal percentage at .754. Michael Dixon (11.8 ppg) and Phil Pressey (10.1 ppg) round out the top scorers.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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El Duque expected to throw Tuesday

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- New York Mets pitcher Orlando Hernandez, sidelined at spring training because of arthritis in his neck, is expected to resume throwing on Tuesday.

Hernandez received a cortisone shot Thursday after leaving camp and returning to New York to have his neck examined. The 41-year-old right-hander is penciled in as the team's No. 2 starter behind Tom Glavine.

El Duque's health is a major issue for the Mets, who won the NL East in 2007 and came within one victory of the World Series. Their aging and unsettled rotation is a big question mark this year.

MySportsbook.com has the Mets as -110 favorites to repeat as NL East champions odds

Hernandez went 11-11 with a 4.66 ERA last season, including 9-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 20 starts after the Mets acquired him from Arizona in late May. But he missed the playoffs because of a torn calf muscle.

New York already is without Pedro Martinez, out until at least midseason following rotator cuff surgery. Among those competing for starting jobs are prospects Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber and Jason Vargas, plus veterans Chan Ho Park, Jorge Sosa and Aaron Sele.

Notes: Mets manager Willie Randolph is excited about two new utility players he could have on his bench: Damion Easley and David Newhan. ''Their value is really all over the place,'' Randolph said. Easley can play anywhere in the infield and could be used as an emergency outfielder, though Randolph said he would prefer to keep the veteran in the infield. Newhan, meanwhile, can play second base, third or any outfield position for the Mets. ''I love versatility,'' Randolph said. ''I love guys that can give me options when I need them to step in.''

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